一个是地震局地质所所长张培震,十多年间跟风拿GPS观测断裂移动速率,认为移动速率低的地方、地震风险就小,把龙门山排除在风险区之外。直到汶川地震把这种方法击得粉碎。直到今年他还在nature geoscience上发文章承认这种错误:
Incomplete scientific knowledge of the structure, palaeoseimic history and dynamics of the Longmen Shan faults contributed to our false sense of security in terms of seismic hazard in this region before the Wenchuan quake3. We have learned the lesson that slowly slipping faults can be dangerous. We must now go through our charts of seismic risk, and identify other potential sources of hazard.
(这个文献3就是他自己当初的文章:Zhang, P. et al. Ann. Geofis. 42, 1167–1190 (1999). 按他自己说,The Longmen Shan fault zone that hosted the quake deforms very slowly and had been assigned a modest-to-low seismic hazard rating)
但这不妨碍他当选院士。
另一位是沈阳金属所的成会明,跟风炒作碳纳米管储氢,最后泡沫破裂、自己发文承认:
Chang Liu, Yong Chen, Cheng-Zhang Wu, Shi-Tao Xu, Hui-Ming Cheng, Hydrogen storage in carbon nanotubes revisited, Carbon,2010, 48(2), 452-455
但今年照样当院士。