us and russia have an intriguing grudging mutual admiration and respect for each other military power. the chance of Ukraine crisis get out of hand is almost none.

each has red lines the other know and won't cross.

not TW. korea war might make US hesitant fighting china in land, that's why north vietnam was never in survival crisis like NK. but TW is mainly decided by sea and air.

the gap is huge, way more than economy one. US hawks have long been angry at doves not using that advantage. now consensus is forming, it needs to be fully utilized, and now.

pompeo said bluntly china forgetting its supposed place to be in the world and US needs to teach china on it; blinken was more gentle, yet message the same, speaking from the position of strength.

despite both china and US claim each will be eventual winner in this new cold war, more and more evidence suggest it's america more than china lacks confidence on the idea of long term mainly peaceful competition . khrushev 1st made that concept famous, and for the next 30 years it held, the two superpowers only indirectly killed each other in third places like vietnam and afghan.

now changed, america lacks this old confidence, thinks the gap would rather be narrower no matter on economy or military , now or never. obama's way is totally discarded, doves gone.

we are destined to see escalation. i expect VIP like pelosi will visit TW, but not so soon, almost made this year. the rumor of biden visit even surfaced is telling. many things are almost predictable:

joint military exercise disguised as disater relief, next TW typhoon or quake, watch out for US/ally navy and AF delivery.

VIP visit like cabinet memebers except SS and defense; congress leaders.

TW modify/change on flag, anthem, passport, language.

until one day the announcement

"it,s time we respect the choice of TW people..."

this risky confrontation is fastly evolving and unpredictable, but one thing is certain:

all chinese (EVEN OTHER ASIANS), no matter where in this world, will suffer, no matter what view. you would think people like gordon chang and miles yu should be safe , but their neighbors might not know the inside, only the outside: TWO CHINESE FACES.